2024 Fuel Trends and Management
26 March 2024
Fleet Management in 2026: Challenges, Change and Opportunity | INControl Insight
2 June 2026What It Means For Transport And Logistics.
Understanding the impact of global oil markets and how businesses can respond.
Rising fuel prices continue to place pressure on South Africa’s transport and logistics sector. As a country that relies heavily on imported crude oil and refined petroleum products, local fuel costs are closely tied to global market movements and currency fluctuations. For businesses that depend on efficient transport operations, understanding these dynamics is essential for managing costs and maintaining operational stability.
Rising and unpredictable fuel prices continue to place pressure on transport operators, directly affecting logistics costs across South Africa.
According to the Road Freight Association, fuel price increases are driven by global oil supply conditions, geopolitical risks, and the exchange rate between the rand and the United States dollar. These external factors limit the control that local businesses have over fuel costs, requiring them to adapt their operations accordingly.
Why Fuel Prices Are Increasing in South Africa
South Africa imports a large portion of its fuel, which makes it vulnerable to international oil price trends. When global demand increases or supply is disrupted, the price of crude oil rises. This directly affects the cost of fuel locally.
Geopolitical instability in key oil producing regions has also contributed to recent increases. The ongoing middle east conflict is disrupting global supply. The primary force moving oil prices over the past few weeks is the ongoing conflict involving Iran, the US, and Israel.
- Oil prices surged above $100-$120 per barrel during March
- The spike is directly linked to supply disruption risk, not demand
Prices are being driven by fear of shortage, not actual shortage alone. Oil markets tend to react quickly to many factors, which leads to price volatility. More about this below.
Oil prices are currently being driven less by supply and demand, and more by geopolitical risk concentrated in one critical global shipping route.
There have been speculations of fuel suppliers hoarding fuel to be able to sell it at the higher price from April 2026. Fuel suppliers are allegedly seeing this as an extra profit opportunity. This in turn increases the fear of fuel shortage and worsens the situation.
The Strait of Hormuz Is the Pressure Point
- Around 20% of global oil supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz
- Disruptions, threats, or closures immediately push prices up
Recent developments:
- Tanker movement restricted
- Threats to vessels
- Military activity in the region
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply—making it one of the most important drivers of global fuel price volatility that directly impacts South African petrol and diesel prices.
Direct Attacks on Energy Infrastructure
Yes, this isn’t just political tension – it’s physical disruption too.
- Over 40 key oil and gas sites damaged in the region
- Refinery and infrastructure attacks have already impacted supply chains
- Repairs could take months, even if conflict slows
This is why volatility isn’t short-term.
Extreme Market Sensitivity (Why Prices Swing So Fast)
Oil markets are reacting to headlines, not just data:
- A temporary pause in attacks → oil drops below $100
- New threats or attacks → oil jumps back above $100
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The Impact on Transport and Supply Chains
The increase in oil prices affects transport operators, manufacturers, retailers, and ultimately consumers.
The Road Freight Association highlights that transport companies often face a difficult decision. They can either absorb the increased costs, which places pressure on cash flow, or adjust their rates to remain financially sustainable. In many cases, rate increases become unavoidable over time.
Higher transport costs also affect the broader economy. Goods become more expensive to produce and distribute, which contributes to inflation. Industries such as agriculture, mining, and retail are particularly exposed due to their reliance on road freight.
How Businesses Can Respond to Rising Fuel Costs
While businesses cannot control fuel prices, they can take practical steps to reduce their exposure and improve efficiency.
- Improve route planning to reduce unnecessary travel and fuel consumption
- Consolidate loads to maximise vehicle utilisation
- Monitor fuel usage across fleets to identify inefficiencies
- Maintain vehicles regularly to improve fuel efficiency
- Review supplier and distribution strategies to reduce transport distances
- Negotiate with your diesel supplier for a 30-60 day payment period to help with cashflow
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Long Term Planning
Fuel price volatility is likely to remain a long term challenge. Businesses that focus on efficiency, data visibility, and strategic planning will be better positioned to manage uncertainty.
There is also growing discussion around alternative energy sources, including electric vehicles and renewable energy solutions. While these technologies are still developing, they represent potential opportunities for reducing reliance on traditional fuel sources in the future.
Looking Ahead
South Africa’s reliance on imported fuel means that global market trends will continue to influence local fuel prices. While this creates ongoing uncertainty, it also highlights the importance of adaptability within the transport and logistics sector.
By focusing on efficiency, improving planning, and making informed operational decisions, businesses can reduce the impact of rising fuel costs and maintain resilience in a changing environment.
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About TMSControl
TMSControl supports transport and logistics businesses by providing tools that improve visibility, planning, and operational efficiency. In an environment where costs are constantly changing, access to accurate information and structured processes plays a key role in maintaining performance.
References
- Road Freight Association. 2026. Fuel price commentary and industry impact.
- www.reuters.com. 23 March 2026. Rise in oil prices slowing global economic growth.
- South African Reserve Bank. 2024. Exchange rate and inflation dynamics in South Africa.
- Department of Mineral Resources and Energy. 2025. Fuel price structure and adjustments.
- International Energy Agency. 2024. Global oil market report.
- BBC. Why the Strait of Hormuz matters so much in the Iran war.
- MSN. 24 March 2026. Suppliers blamed for hoarding fuel for profit.
1 Comment
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